Came across a great contrarian view on inflation (or rather, the lack thereof) that we should expect in the near-future.
It's a long-ish article for those of you who aren't that interested in the economic outlook, or who have already parked your money in real estate. Everyone else who has cash to burn on the markets, pay attention.
Firstly, this particular article is super-calm and collected compared to several of the other more dramatic ones I referenced the other day. Secondly, it's both a quantitative and qualitative assessment, based on historical events. Where this article differs from the others is that the sources (skip down to the "Quarterly Review and Outlook" section half way down) take into account many other variables that affect the outcome - not just the mere fact that printing money = inflation.
Their conclusion is quite the opposite. Their prediction is that inflation in our circumstances should be benign and short lived, and we will ultimately enter a period of deflation. They finish with the disclosure that they put their money where their mouth is.
I don't know what to believe anymore.
-d
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
All hail our new overlords.
For those of you who haven’t heard the news, Kraft has offered a very attractive bid for Cadbury. Cadbury’s board is recommending that shareholders accept the offer. The deadline for the bid is Feb 2, so if everything goes to plan, Kraft’s ownership of Cadbury will be effective Feb 3. That’s all I can say about that.
The times, they are a-changing. Over the last month or so, with the turning over of a new year, every business writer or economist or analyst and his/her mother has taken the opportunity to write an article about what to expect of our economy in 2010 and beyond. By our economy, I mean mainly the US economy. It seems like there are essentially two schools of thought on this: 1) We’re on the road to recovery, and all is well – the US dollar will make a comeback; or, 2) We’re on the road to hell, paved by US hyper-inflation.
By and large, the first camp seem to be operating on some kind of faith in the dollar, treating this most recent recession the same as any other – recovery is inevitable because the dollar has never failed to recover before. It reeks of some kind of arrogant manifest destiny, and we all know where empires with that attitude end up.
The other school is mostly formed of (what appears to be) Libertarians of one kind or another. They use historical models of hyper-inflation to illustrate how the US economy is doomed, but also fail to explain how the US economy hasn’t failed already (since according to their models, we shouldn’t be able to maintain 4 consecutive months of growth the way we have…). The Libertarians argue that the US economy is being manipulated by… greedy bankers? No. China? Nope. Jews? Wrong again. Black people? Close. They’re accusing Obama and the US government itself (like we’d expect anything else of Libertarians) of manipulating the markets in order to maintain control over the country. In this conspiracy, the Department of Homeland Security is the rough equivalent of the Gestapo, installed by the former regime (but kept around by the current one) to maintain control over the population when the shit hits the fan. These people (Libertarians) are scared. Like, stocking up on water, food, guns and ammo scared.
So, what to do? I have no clue, but I’ve always been risk-averse in my investments. Ordinarily, I’d put my money somewhere safe, with a guaranteed return, but in light of the hyper-inflation doom and gloom, not even those are safe anymore. Real Estate maybe? No, the combination of low interest rates and good health of Canada’s financial institutions has created a local housing bubble. Gold? Yeah, but not GLD gold, maybe solid gold (the real stuff, like the kind they used to use to buy wives with).
Is it embarrassing to want to buy solid gold? Does it put you in the same camp as the gun-toting, forest-dwelling, crazy-for-cookie kooks? Yeah… I think so.
So what should you do? I haven’t the slightest idea. All’s I know is that things HAVE to change. The way we’re doing thing is not at all sustainable, even for the near future. Historical examples of hyper-inflation give us clues as to what’s going to happen – the US will cease being the world’s economic superpower. So who’s next? As much as I hate to say it, and as much as I poo-poo like predictions, the next world superpower looks like it might be China. Why’s that? 1. Solid manufacturing base. 2. High level of personal savings (ie. untapped credit market). 3. Military might (both in a conventional and electronic-warfare sense). More importantly, the US economic hegemony is waning, and the time is ripe for opportunism. All that wealth we've accumulated needs to be invested in the next great scam, and a lot of people are looking at China.
This is not to say that our way of life, as we know it, is doomed. Many former empires still enjoy a comfortable lifestyle. No need to worry. If you're interested in taking the future by the horns though, it'd probably be a good idea to learn Mandarin.
-d
The times, they are a-changing. Over the last month or so, with the turning over of a new year, every business writer or economist or analyst and his/her mother has taken the opportunity to write an article about what to expect of our economy in 2010 and beyond. By our economy, I mean mainly the US economy. It seems like there are essentially two schools of thought on this: 1) We’re on the road to recovery, and all is well – the US dollar will make a comeback; or, 2) We’re on the road to hell, paved by US hyper-inflation.
By and large, the first camp seem to be operating on some kind of faith in the dollar, treating this most recent recession the same as any other – recovery is inevitable because the dollar has never failed to recover before. It reeks of some kind of arrogant manifest destiny, and we all know where empires with that attitude end up.
The other school is mostly formed of (what appears to be) Libertarians of one kind or another. They use historical models of hyper-inflation to illustrate how the US economy is doomed, but also fail to explain how the US economy hasn’t failed already (since according to their models, we shouldn’t be able to maintain 4 consecutive months of growth the way we have…). The Libertarians argue that the US economy is being manipulated by… greedy bankers? No. China? Nope. Jews? Wrong again. Black people? Close. They’re accusing Obama and the US government itself (like we’d expect anything else of Libertarians) of manipulating the markets in order to maintain control over the country. In this conspiracy, the Department of Homeland Security is the rough equivalent of the Gestapo, installed by the former regime (but kept around by the current one) to maintain control over the population when the shit hits the fan. These people (Libertarians) are scared. Like, stocking up on water, food, guns and ammo scared.
So, what to do? I have no clue, but I’ve always been risk-averse in my investments. Ordinarily, I’d put my money somewhere safe, with a guaranteed return, but in light of the hyper-inflation doom and gloom, not even those are safe anymore. Real Estate maybe? No, the combination of low interest rates and good health of Canada’s financial institutions has created a local housing bubble. Gold? Yeah, but not GLD gold, maybe solid gold (the real stuff, like the kind they used to use to buy wives with).
Is it embarrassing to want to buy solid gold? Does it put you in the same camp as the gun-toting, forest-dwelling, crazy-for-cookie kooks? Yeah… I think so.
So what should you do? I haven’t the slightest idea. All’s I know is that things HAVE to change. The way we’re doing thing is not at all sustainable, even for the near future. Historical examples of hyper-inflation give us clues as to what’s going to happen – the US will cease being the world’s economic superpower. So who’s next? As much as I hate to say it, and as much as I poo-poo like predictions, the next world superpower looks like it might be China. Why’s that? 1. Solid manufacturing base. 2. High level of personal savings (ie. untapped credit market). 3. Military might (both in a conventional and electronic-warfare sense). More importantly, the US economic hegemony is waning, and the time is ripe for opportunism. All that wealth we've accumulated needs to be invested in the next great scam, and a lot of people are looking at China.
This is not to say that our way of life, as we know it, is doomed. Many former empires still enjoy a comfortable lifestyle. No need to worry. If you're interested in taking the future by the horns though, it'd probably be a good idea to learn Mandarin.
-d
Thursday, January 07, 2010
Yoga
Went to hot yoga on New Year’s day. Moksha Yoga has a Friday evening class based on a minimum donation ($5 - $8 depending on location) which goes to charity. This was my second time ever doing hot yoga (or any yoga, for that matter), and it was pretty enjoyable.
About a month ago, I pulled a muscle in my neck / upper back and it’s been bothering me for a while. I figured some yoga might help relieve the tension and improve the flexibility in my neck, and it worked, at least as a short-term reprieve. It had about the same effect as a massage therapy session.
Going forward, I’m going to try to attend one class a week, generally Friday nights, if I don’t have to work the weekend. It seems like a good way to help even out my muscle imbalances in my neck, shoulders, and back (damned DBR). I’d been advised before by my RMT that I might run into neck and back issues because the difference in height between my right and left shoulders exceed 1”. Sure enough, I get chronic injuries to the left side of my neck.
Over the holidays, Chapters/Indigo had a 20% off sale on yoga equipment, plus KT gave me a few gift cards that she’d received earlier in the year. So, I scored myself a yoga mat and bag. It cost me next to nothing (well, apart from the gift cards).
As for what to wear, I don’t see myself in yoga tights or anything from Lulu Lemon. Based on the two times I’ve gone, I found that compression shorts under running shorts worked the best. Swimming trunks definitely did not work – they kept sticking to my legs and I was constantly afraid I’d bust a seam. The compression shorts don’t stick to the running shorts, so that’s one way to maximize range of motion without sacrificing… privacy.
Anyway, yoga will be an official part of my workout regimen, but I’ll keep it to a minimum. Maybe max once a week, no more. I don’t want to end up a human pretzel, and I still need a little inflexibility to run for distance.
-d
About a month ago, I pulled a muscle in my neck / upper back and it’s been bothering me for a while. I figured some yoga might help relieve the tension and improve the flexibility in my neck, and it worked, at least as a short-term reprieve. It had about the same effect as a massage therapy session.
Going forward, I’m going to try to attend one class a week, generally Friday nights, if I don’t have to work the weekend. It seems like a good way to help even out my muscle imbalances in my neck, shoulders, and back (damned DBR). I’d been advised before by my RMT that I might run into neck and back issues because the difference in height between my right and left shoulders exceed 1”. Sure enough, I get chronic injuries to the left side of my neck.
Over the holidays, Chapters/Indigo had a 20% off sale on yoga equipment, plus KT gave me a few gift cards that she’d received earlier in the year. So, I scored myself a yoga mat and bag. It cost me next to nothing (well, apart from the gift cards).
As for what to wear, I don’t see myself in yoga tights or anything from Lulu Lemon. Based on the two times I’ve gone, I found that compression shorts under running shorts worked the best. Swimming trunks definitely did not work – they kept sticking to my legs and I was constantly afraid I’d bust a seam. The compression shorts don’t stick to the running shorts, so that’s one way to maximize range of motion without sacrificing… privacy.
Anyway, yoga will be an official part of my workout regimen, but I’ll keep it to a minimum. Maybe max once a week, no more. I don’t want to end up a human pretzel, and I still need a little inflexibility to run for distance.
-d
Wednesday, January 06, 2010
Carry-on luggage banned on Can -> US flights
The Canadian Air Transport Security Authority has banned all carry-on luggage on flights from Canada to the US. The exceptions to this are:
-d
personal items such as medication or medical devices, small purses, cameras, coats, items for care of infants, laptop computers, crutches, canes, walkers, containers carrying life sustaining items, a special needs item, musical instruments, or diplomatic or consular bags.
-d
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